Dcap House ViewDahlgren Capital Market House View: May Key Trends and InsightsThe great economic policy uncertainty makes it almost impossible to say anything clever about the future. The past month is clear evidence. In April, Donald Trump first proclaimed ”Liberation Day” with a salvo of tariff increases. Then he lowered them for most trading partners – but raised them for … Read More

Dcap House ViewDahlgren Capital Market House View: April Key Trends and InsightsPresident Trump has presented the US tariff strategy. The proposed measures are unfair, ill-considered and harmful. The stated duty rates are pure mishmash. They were supposed to be ”reciprocal” but are calculated on the basis of the US trade deficit against each individual country, without regard to trade in … Read More

Dcap House ViewDahlgren Capital Market House View: March Key Trends and InsightsAfter the barrage of proposals, threats and arguments in recent weeks, uncertainty is monumental, as is visible in this graph from Capital Economics. Economic forecasting in such an environment is more or less impossible since so much hinges on political and geopolitical factors impossible to quantify.  Investment decision will, … Read More

Dcap House ViewDahlgren Capital Market House View: February Key Trends and InsightsAnd so it begins. The new American president has begun to unleash exactly the barrage of threats and orders that he promised during the election campaign. The result will be heightened geopolitical and economic uncertainty – and financial volatility. Trump obviously sees tariffs as some kind of Swiss army … Read More

Dcap House ViewDahlgren Capital Market House View: January Key Trends and InsightsA new year is here – with geopolitical scares and a moment of truth for financial markets. The geopolitical risks are obvious: The war in Ukraine drags on, and despite what President-elect Trump says, there will not be peace anytime soon. A new axis of rogue states is coalescing. … Read More

Dcap House ViewDahlgren Capital Market House View: December Key Trends and Insights2024 was supposed to be a return to some kind of normalcy, with inflation and yields coming down while real economies gradually would recover after previous shocks from pandemics and war. The outcome was more mixed. Inflation did come down in Europe, but a surprisingly strong American labour market … Read More

Dcap House ViewDahlgren Capital Market House View: November Key Trends and InsightsDonald Trump’s victory in the American presidential election has had tangible initial effects on financial markets. The dollar has strengthened, the US stock market has risen against others, interest rates have gone up, Bitcoin is breaking records. These ”Trump trades” are likely to continue for a while longer. Bullishness … Read More

Dcap House ViewDahlgren Capital Market House View: October Key Trends and InsightsThe geopolitical, macro-economic and financial market situation is extremely fluid and uncertain. Inflation has come down to target levels in the major regions; in some cases even below. This means central banks can redirect their attention to the real economy and unemployment. Here, the development is rather bleak. The … Read More

Dcap House ViewDahlgren Capital Market House View: September Key Trends and InsightsAfter the last two years have been dominated by high inflation and high interest rates, inflation has now come down. Central banks can direct their attention to unemployment and the real economy – in a situation where growth is slowing precariously in the big economies US, China, Japan and … Read More